Russia has engaged in a ruthless campaign to knock out critical infrastructure, including power and water, in the middle of winter. More than eight million Ukrainians have become refugees, at least six million more are internally displaced, and nearly half the population needs humanitarian assistance. He has been steadfast, but how long can Ukrainian resilience hold? As of January 15, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees recorded 18,358 civilian casualties in the country: 7,031 killed and 11,327 injured. President Zelensky has been a symbol of his nation’s resolve and defiance in the face of a brutal enemy. – Zelensky’s New Year address to the nation Not a white flag, but a blue and yellow flag. On February 24, millions of us made a choice. commitment with its military aid package and training programs, and in one of his few lines on foreign policy in the State of the Union, Biden pledged that the United States “will stand with you as long as it takes.” On the heels of Zelensky’s trip, European allies need to find ways to signal the same commitment to their people and to Kyiv. The Biden administration has signaled medium-term U.S. Instead, Russia needs to fear that, just as it underestimated NATO’s willingness to help Ukraine and Ukraine’s ability to fight, it has miscalculated the West’s resolve to stay with Ukraine all the way to Crimea. ![]() The key assumption in that bet is that Russia can outlast NATO commitment. Moscow is betting that time is on its side and it can grind Ukraine into dust. ![]() In this conflict more than most, Ukraine’s chances at victory will be decided by both the weapons themselves and the symbolic value of the commitment to send them. and European military planners will begin to feel the pinch and question what should go to Ukraine and what should be held in reserve for a potential future fight, should this conflict dramatically escalate or China see an opportunity to move in the Pacific. ![]() allies and partners in Europe also have defense industrial bases that are unprepared for major war, heavily reliant on the United States, and chronically underfunded.” At some point, U.S. The report says “DoD has only placed on contract a fraction of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine. stocks of critical weapons systems faster than they can be replenished, in our current peacetime production tempo. As CSIS’s Seth Jones argued in his recent report, Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment, support to Ukraine has drawn down U.S. NATO allies also have a structural concern beyond the whims of opinion polls. Those segments are still minorities, but Ukraine is only a year into what most likely will be a very long fight. A recent poll by the European Hybrid CoE suggests that segments of the public in key European nations are questioning why Europe is sending so much aid to Ukraine. Recent Quran-burning protests in Sweden seem to have been bought and paid for by Russian assets, designed to make it impossible for Turkey to support Sweden’s bid for NATO membership. Russia is working hard to widen any crack in support for Ukraine. Debates over fourth-generation fighter jets and long-range fires are surely right around the corner.īut Zelensky’s work is never done. HIMARS-the light, mobile, precision artillery platforms-are already a hero of the war, and Abrams and Leopard tanks are inbound. The West has responded: despite a slow, hesitant start, marked by hand-wringing over escalation, NATO members have stepped up to provide increasingly effective and potent weapons systems. Ukrainian president Zelensky knows it and has devoted considerable time and energy to shoring up relationships and corresponding supply lines-for example, leaving Ukraine to visit Washington and Europe. The success or failure of Kyiv’s war effort hinges on one unfortunate fact: Ukraine does not have the indigenous capacity to arm itself for this fight. ![]() Single Point of Failure: Will Outside Support for Ukraine Endure?ĭeputy Director and Senior Fellow, International Security Program
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